Villa Alfred Xavier
More and more research reports, as well as the popular media, confirm the extent of the number of seniors who will be searching for lodging that is more adapted to their specialised needs. There are also indicators that they are looking for housing complexes that will offer them prestigious accommodations, but that is affordable and above all clean, as well as the possibility of a meal service that is healthy, and social-economic activities; and, more importantly, a high degree of security, as much for their possessions as for their physical health and peace of mind.
Identification of the Market
The choices available to seniors in Canada vary greatly based on their province of residence... and on their official pension revenues.
According to recent statistics (for Qu閎ec), about 20% of older people (numbering 33,000 retiree households, in 19936) live in subsidized housing, while a little more than 10% live in accommodations considered luxurious, such as condos and retirement villages, and are either renting or more often are owners.
That means that approximately 70% of older people live in average housing, in equal parts as either rentees or as owners. They are more often too well-off to qualify for subsidized housing, and not wealthy enough to permit themselves the luxuries offered in condominium projects.
As well, we must remember that the majority of this elder cohort, that is "..85% to 90%... are women living alone..."7.
With the coming of the babyboom wave that is entering the seniors age bracket, everyone is waiting for the increase in the number of people who will be part of that cohort. A cohort that has specific needs unique to their age, with its restricted activities, diminished health, and other negative aspects.
With average pension revenues , they cannot allow themselves the luxuries they dream of. They can only be envious of their colleagues' choices. They see themselves as stuck in their family house, justifying their situation by declaring their desire to live as they have always done. But attention... their real desire, so well hidden for such a long time, is starting to show itself in the findings of more liberal social research endeavours.
This new research indicates quite clearly that this cohort would also love to benefit from a little luxury... if it could be found at affordable prices. In fact, this research confirms the cohort's desire to move as soon as the occasion presents itself, to live in such autonomous residences, having full services.
An industry in full growth. Sad that it still operates under established prejudices from old times, a time when seniors were considered a burden on society and that the best was to house them in old timers residences, to distract them, and especially to keep them out of sight... the better to forget them !
We are still at the phase of small residences that offer services to seniors of the community.The best would be to "...reduce to a minimum its (residential projects) dependance on non-guaranteed financing,... to develop... a certain potential for auto-financing..."3. But there are still organisations that believe that "...a guaranteed financial support from the MSSS could make all the difference... yearly recurring subsidies... would allow corporations to face the future with more assurance..."3. So now we are seeing more money (from the private market, but mostly from the government) that is given to groups that offer such services. We will shortly see these small operations being swallowed by bigger operations, nationals, even multi-nationals (read USA). So where will personalised service end up ?
Even though everyone would like to offer "...lodging where they will obtain a better quality of life and maintain a satisfactory autonomous lifestyle... an environment where we will be treated with dignity and respect... that is not what is happening in too many cases."9 As well, note that in these "...residential complexes, in many cases it is simply a matter of structured exploitation of seniors to whom we promise a whole series of free quality services, but that are often non-existent, reduce to simple offerings, rapidly abolished or suddenly offered at a fee."10
And in all that we have accolades being given to the best (?) of these, even as they continue to cry out for more government subsidies from the MSSS.
Analysis of the Competition
Seniors residences can be divided into four categories :
A majority of the management of these competing residences believe that "...the recourse to job creation programs, although of interest on certain aspects, cannot fill the need for the necessary permanent personnel... (for the residence...js) where the services have to be provided year round..."3. And they talk about self-financing !?... not really ! And what about building themselves a small empire to the detriment of the welfare and valorization of the tenants ?
The Project... Update
Further to improvements on the concept, the project will be composed of three modules (buildings), each having two stories. There will be two housing modules and one for commercial activities and professional offices. The latter will create a continuous income stream to ensure the auto-financing of the project.
The company will be a private for-profit corporation, with provincial charter, which will operate in an harmony of capitalism and social conscience.
The company will offer shares in two categories. The Class-A shares are emitted without market value, are the only ones to have voting rights, and are 92 in total. The Class-B shares are emitted with an initial quoted market value of $10 each, do not have voting rights, and are 600,000 in total at the beginning. By regulation of incorporation, there is possibility of a maximum of forty (40) investors who can obtain these shares. The company gives itself the privilege to entertain only offers of purchases for investments of a minimum of $25,000. The initial first twelve (12) investors who make a minimal offer of $50,000 will obtain 5,000 (min.) Class-B shares in addition to one Class-A voting share. All other investors will receive only Class-B shares, and will not be able to obtain Class-A shares unless they extensively participate on various operational committees established by the Executive Committee of the Corporation.
Team of 15 full time employees in addition to many part-time people (in particular Alliance members...). Wages include benefits (EB) of 25% of basic pay.
Benefits of the Project
Startup Cost of Project
The start-up expenses (included in the total cost of the complex) are estimated at $200,000, and include professional fees in the fields of project management and development, director of operations, research/surveys, incorporation, deposit on land acquisition, and others.
It should be noted that the total cost of immobilization is estimated at $6,000,000, and includes land, housing, commercial spaces and professional offices, landscaping and other attractions.
The major financing will be obtained from InvestQu閎ec (which has already expressed an interest in the project following a presentation last October 30th, at GATinnovation '99 ), or from investments by pension funds which are increasingly present in the market as sponsors of innovative social projects, or from financial institutions by traditional mortgage.
Of course, some of the potential residents of this complex of 92 units, and even those who will become strictly Members of the Alliance, will appreciate the advantages of an investment. Thus we envisage the possibility of amassing preconstruction financial reserves valued at between $600,000 an $800,000, that is investments of $25,000 per investor (...24 to 32, which represents less than 35% of the resident-members).
NOTE - Because of the uniqueness of the concept, there will be certain hesitations from private investors. Therefore all investor funds will be put in a fiduciary deposit account. If the construction of the complex does not begin within eighteen month following the incorporation of the villa-residence, the investors will then be able to expect a return of 100% of their funds.
If an intermediate financing is necessary, it will come either from investments of other tenants, or by agreement with the owner / promoter of the selected site (by long-term lease, or even the exchange of land for services, or other), or by private philanthropic investors working in the field of assistance to elders. It should be noted that contacts have already been undertaken with certain potential business-investors such as national family restaurant chains, Tim Horton's, the Sarlos Foundation of Toronto, of the local business people, and others.
Cost and Financing of Project
Total of $6 M :
Available only to investors making a deposit.
Cash Flow Forecast
Available only to investors making a deposit.
Financial Results Forecasted
Revenues for the first twelve months of operation are estimated at $980,050. This include revenues from residential rents in addition to the leasing of various commercial spaces, professional offices and public spaces in the complex. Forecasts for the second and third years show marked growth of revenues as the benefits of being a resident-member are seen by the targeted customers and the local general public. Thus, the planned revenues for the second year are $1,775,925. Forecasted revenues for the the third year, and the following years, will be $2,847,545 per annum.
The forecasted expenses (including land costs, if necessary) will be in the order of $1,557,000 for the first year, $1,951,400 for the second, and $2,847,500 for the third.
Net benefits should pass from a loss of $576,950 the first year to a balanced budget for the third year. As a private corporation, all profits will be distributed as dividends to registered shareholders, after reserves for complex improvements-modifications to allow flexibility in meeting the real needs of its current, and future customers.
The break-even point is forecasted for the 17th month of operation of the Villa Alfred Xavier. This threshold is achieved with that month's revenues of $155,800, and expenses of $149,125, which leads to the first monthly profit of $6,675. That break-even point corresponds to a residential occupancy rate of 81%, with 67% capacity for professional offices, and 80% of the commercial space, and usage fees for various public areas, as well as the numerous products and services that are offered.
Return On Investment (ROI)
It is certainly difficult to predict with certainty the ROI of the proposed project. But, it is certainly logical to say that there will be a very high ROI. The reasons? The principal ones are... (1) the growth of the number of people in this market (the "babyboom wave" is here, now), (2) the growing demand for housing which offers "more" in services and environment, and (3) the requirement of old people to be seen, and the need of society to have people who feel "valorized"... who participate and contribute to the good activities of an evolving society.
A reminder... one of the objectives of the corporation is to safe-guard investors' estate and the "global" health of its residents-investors-members. All profits will therefore be re-invested, at least for the first five years, into the operations and activities of the Villa Alfred Xavier in order to maintain the services and products at their highest quality level. A decision will then be made as to the date of distribution of the dividends, and their amounts.
Time to Invest ? ! ?
The decision to invest... or not... is of course yours to make. We would ask that you keep in mind the past performance of other similar investment options. In particular, we wish to bring to your attention the following scenario.
Let me show you how you can both invest in a prestigious lifestyle, and protect your initial deposit at Villa Alfred Xavier.
Contact me directly at
firstname.lastname@example.org. We can discuss in private
the potential of this investment as it relates to your personal
Note-3 --- selon Mme. Marielle Dion membre du conseil
d'administration de la corporation Les Habitations les II
Volets, dans le Compte rendu du colloque tenu à Montréal en
11/91, intitulée Les habitations pour personnes ainées en
perte d'autonomie, page 21
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